The dynamics of architectural complexity on coral reefs under climate change.

One striking feature of coral reef ecosystems is the complex benthic architecture which supports diverse and abundant fauna, particularly of reef fish. Reef-building corals are in decline worldwide, with a corresponding loss of live coral cover resulting in a loss of architectural complexity. Understanding the dynamics of the reef architecture is therefore important to envision the ability of corals to maintain functional habitats in an era of climate change. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of reef topographical complexity for contemporary Caribbean reefs. The model describes the dynamics of corals and other benthic taxa under climate-driven disturbances (hurricanes and coral bleaching). Corals have a simplified shape with explicit diameter and height, allowing species-specific calculation of their colony surface and volume. Growth and the mechanical (hurricanes) and biological erosion (parrotfish) of carbonate skeletons are important in driving the pace of extension/reduction in the upper reef surface, the net outcome being quantified by a simple surface roughness index (reef rugosity). The model accurately simulated the decadal changes of coral cover observed in Cozumel (Mexico) between 1984 and 2008, and provided a realistic hindcast of coral colony-scale (1-10 m) changing rugosity over the same period. We then projected future changes of Caribbean reef rugosity in response to global warming. Under severe and frequent thermal stress, the model predicted a dramatic loss of rugosity over the next two or three decades. Critically, reefs with managed parrotfish populations were able to delay the general loss of architectural complexity, as the benefits of grazing in maintaining living coral outweighed the bioerosion of dead coral skeletons. Overall, this model provides the first explicit projections of reef rugosity in a warming climate, and highlights the need of combining local (protecting and restoring high grazing) to global (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions) interventions for the persistence of functional reef habitats.

Bozec YM ，Alvarez-Filip L ，Mumby PJ 《-》

Decadal-scale rates of reef erosion following El Niño-related mass coral mortality.

As the frequency and intensity of coral mortality events increase under climate change, understanding how declines in coral cover may affect the bioerosion of reef frameworks is of increasing importance. Here, we explore decadal-scale rates of bioerosion of the framework building coral Orbicella annularis by grazing parrotfish following the 1997/1998 El Niño-related mass mortality event at Long Cay, Belize. Using high-precision U-Th dating and CT scan analysis, we quantified in situ rates of external bioerosion over a 13-year period (1998-2011). Based upon the error-weighted average U-Th age of dead O. annularis skeletons, we estimate the average external bioerosion between 1998 and 2011 as 0.92 ± 0.55 cm depth. Empirical observations of herbivore foraging, and a nonlinear numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability, were used to create a model of external bioerosion at Long Cay. Model estimates of external bioerosion were in close agreement with U-Th estimates (0.85 ± 0.09 cm). The model was then used to quantify how rates of external bioerosion changed across a gradient of coral mortality (i.e., from few corals experiencing mortality following coral bleaching to complete mortality). Our results indicate that external bioerosion is remarkably robust to declines in coral cover, with no significant relationship predicted between the rate of external bioerosion and the proportion of O. annularis that died in the 1998 bleaching event. The outcome was robust because the reduction in grazing intensity that follows coral mortality was compensated for by a positive numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability. Our model estimates further indicate that for an O. annularis-dominated reef to maintain a positive state of reef accretion, a necessity for sustained ecosystem function, live cover of O. annularis must not drop below a ~5-10% threshold of cover.

Roff G ，Zhao JX ，Mumby PJ 《-》

The impact of exploiting grazers (Scaridae) on the dynamics of Caribbean coral reefs.

Mumby PJ 《ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS》

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

Graham NA ，Jennings S ，MacNeil MA ，Mouillot D ，Wilson SK ... -  《-》

Habitat degradation is threatening reef replenishment by making fish fearless.

Habitat degradation is one of the 'Big Five' drivers of biodiversity loss. However, the mechanisms responsible for this progressive loss of biodiversity are poorly understood. In marine ecosystems, corals play the role of ecosystem engineers, providing essential habitat for hundreds of thousands of species and hence their health is crucial to the stability of the whole ecosystem. Climate change is causing coral bleaching and degradation, and while this has been known for a while, little do we know about the cascading consequences of these events on the complex interrelationships between predators and their prey. The goal of our study was to investigate, under completely natural conditions, the effect of coral degradation on predator-prey interactions. Settlement stage ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis), a common tropical fish, were released on patches of healthy or dead corals, and their behaviours in situ were measured, along with their response to injured conspecific cues, a common risk indicator. This study also explored the effect of habitat degradation on natural levels of mortality at a critical life-history transition. We found that juveniles in dead corals displayed risk-prone behaviours, sitting further away and higher up on the reef patch, and failed to respond to predation cues, compared to those on live coral patches. In addition, in situ survival experiments over 48 h indicated that juveniles on dead coral habitats had a 75% increase in predation-related mortality, compared to fish released on live, healthy coral habitats. Our results provide the first of many potential mechanisms through which habitat degradation can impact the relationship between prey and predators in the coral reef ecosystem. As the proportion of dead coral increases, the recruitment and replenishment of coral reef fishes will be threatened, and so will the level of diversity in these biodiversity hot spots.

Lönnstedt OM ，McCormick MI ，Chivers DP ，Ferrari MC ... -  《-》