Prognostic impact of admission blood glucose for all-cause mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes: added value on top of GRACE risk score.

Abnormal glucose metabolism is a predictor of worse outcome after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, this parameter is not included in risk prediction scores, including GRACE risk score. We sought to evaluate whether the inclusion of blood glucose at admission in a model with GRACE risk score improves risk stratification. Study of consecutive patients included in a single centre registry of ACS. Our primary endpoint was the occurrence of all-cause mortality at one-year follow-up. The ability of the two logistic regression models (GRACE risk score alone and in combination with blood glucose) to predict death was analysed. Continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were also calculated. We included 2099 patients, with a mean age of 64 (SD=13) years, 69% males. In our sample, 55.1% presented with ST-segment elevation ACS and 13.1% in Killip class ≥ 2. Only 25% were known diabetic at admission. In-hospital mortality was 5.8% and 9.7% at one-year follow-up. The best cut-point for blood glucose was 160 mg/dl (sensitivity 62% and specificity 68%), and 35.2% of the patients had increased levels. This group was elderly, had more prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, worse renal function and GRACE score as well as more frequently Killip class ≥2. Treatment was similar in both groups besides less frequent use of clopidogrel in high glycaemic patients. The hyperglycaemia group had higher one-year mortality (17.2% vs. 5.6%, p<0.001). Moreover, binary blood glucose remained a predictor of death independently of the GRACE risk score and the presence of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) 1.99, 95% CI 1.40-2.84, p<0.001). The inclusion of blood glucose, as a continuous variable, in a logistic regression model with GRACE score, increased the area under the ROC curve from 0.80 to 0.82 (p=0.018) as well as the goodness-of-fit and was associated with an improvement in both the NRI (37%) and the IDI (0.021), suggesting effective reclassification. A blood glucose level on admission ≥ 160 mg/dl is an independent predictor of mortality in medium-term follow-up. It offers an incremental predictive value when added to the GRACE risk score, although with a modest magnitude of improvement, probably due to the high predictive performance of the GRACE risk score alone.

Timóteo AT ，Papoila AL ，Rio P ，Miranda F ，Ferreira ML ，Ferreira RC ... -  《-》

Predictive impact on medium-term mortality of hematological parameters in Acute Coronary Syndromes: added value on top of GRACE risk score.

Red Cell Distribution Width (RDW) prognostic value in patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) has been well validated whereas that of Platelet Distribution Width (PDW) is less well known. Investigate the incremental prognostic value, on top of GRACE risk score, of a new variable resulting from the combination of RDW and PDW. Consecutive patients with ACS. Complete blood count, with RDW and PDW, was obtained. Primary endpoint was one-year all-cause mortality and Cox regression models were used to measure the influence of RDW and PDW on patients' survival time. A new combination categorical variable (RDW/PDW) was created with both discretized RDW and PDW and logistic regression models were used. Predictive value and discriminative ability of the model with GRACE risk score alone and of the model with inclusion of RDW/PDW was assessed. We included 787 patients. Hospital and one-year mortality rates were 5.1% and 7.8%, respectively. Both continuous RDW and PDW were independent predictors of death. The best cut-off for RDW was 13.9%, and 14.5% for PDW. Inclusion of RDW/PDW in a model with GRACE risk score improved the AUC from 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.86) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.90) (p=0.024) with an improvement in total NRI (56%) and IDI (0.048). Simple markers such as RDW and PDW can be useful in risk stratification of death after ACS. Combining both markers with GRACE risk score improved the predictive value for all-cause mortality and reduced the estimated risk of those who did not die.

Timóteo AT ，Papoila AL ，Lousinha A ，Alves M ，Miranda F ，Ferreira ML ，Ferreira RC ... -  《-》

Additional value of B-type natriuretic peptide on discrimination of patients at risk for mortality after a non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.

García-Alvarez A ，Regueiro A ，Hernández J ，Kasa G ，Sitges M ，Bosch X ，Heras M ... -  《-》

Anaemia to predict outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

Owing to the heterogeneous population of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), risk stratification with tools such as the GRACE risk score is recommended to guide therapeutic management and improve outcome. To evaluate whether anaemia refines the value of the GRACE risk model to predict midterm outcome after an ACS. A prospective registry of 1064 ACS patients (63 ± 14 years; 73% men; 57% ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI]) was studied. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin less than 13 mg/dL in men or less than 12 mg/dL in women. The primary endpoint was 6-month death or rehospitalization for MI. The primary endpoint was reached in 132 patients, including 68 deaths. Anaemia was associated with adverse clinical outcomes (hazard ratio 3.008, 95% confidence interval 2.137-4.234; P<0.0001) in univariate analysis and remained independently associated with outcome after adjustment for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (hazard ratio 2.870, 95% confidence interval 1.815-4.538; P<0.0001). Anaemia provided additional prognostic information to the GRACE score as demonstrated by a systematic improvement in global model fit and discrimination (c-statistic increasing from 0.633 [0.571;0.696] to 0.697 [0.638;0.755]). Subsequently, adding anaemia to the GRACE score led to reclassification of 595 patients into different risk categories; 16.5% patients at low risk (≤ 5% risk of death or rehospitalization for MI) were upgraded to intermediate (>5-10%) or high risk (>10%); 79.5% patients at intermediate risk were reclassified as low (55%) or high risk (24%); and 45.5% patients at high risk were downgraded to intermediate risk. Overall, 174 patients were reclassified into a higher risk category (17.3%) and 421 into a lower risk category (41.9%). Anaemia provides independent additional prognostic information to the GRACE score. Combining anaemia with the GRACE score refines its predictive value, which often overestimates the risk.

Ennezat PV ，Maréchaux S ，Pinçon C ，Finzi J ，Barrailler S ，Bouabdallaoui N ，Van Belle E ，Montalescot G ，Collet JP ... -  《-》

Predictive value of NT-proBNP for 30-day mortality in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes: a comparison with the GRACE and TIMI risk scores.

Schellings DA ，Adiyaman A ，Dambrink JE ，Gosselink AM ，Kedhi E ，Roolvink V ，Ottervanger JP ，Van't Hof AW ... -  《-》