Development and external validation of a nomogram for overall survival after curative resection in serosa-negative, locally advanced gastric cancer.

Few nomograms can predict overall survival (OS) after curative resection of advanced gastric cancer (AGC), and these nomograms were developed using data from only a few large centers over a long time period. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an elaborative nomogram that predicts 5-year OS after curative resection for serosa-negative, locally AGC using a large amount of data from multiple centers in Japan over a short time period (2001-2003). Of 39 859 patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer between 2001 and 2003 at multiple centers in Japan, we retrospectively analyzed 5196 patients with serosa-negative AGC who underwent Resection A according to the 13th Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma. The data of 3085 patients who underwent surgery from 2001 to 2002 were used as a training set for the construction of a nomogram and Web software. The data of 2111 patients who underwent surgery in 2003 were used as an external validation set. Age at operation, gender, tumor size and location, macroscopic type, histological type, depth of invasion, number of positive and examined lymph nodes, and lymphovascular invasion, but not the extent of lymphadenectomy, were associated with OS. Discrimination of the developed nomogram was superior to that of the TNM classification (concordance indices of 0.68 versus 0.61; P < 0.001). Moreover, calibration was accurate. We have developed and externally validated an elaborative nomogram that predicts the 5-year OS of postoperative serosa-negative AGC. This nomogram would be helpful in the assessment of individual risks and in the consideration of additional therapy in clinical practice, and we have created freely available Web software to more easily and quickly predict OS and to draw a survival curve for these purposes.

Hirabayashi S ，Kosugi S ，Isobe Y ，Nashimoto A ，Oda I ，Hayashi K ，Miyashiro I ，Tsujitani S ，Kodera Y ，Seto Y ，Furukawa H ，Ono H ，Tanabe S ，Kaminishi M ，Nunobe S ，Fukagawa T ，Matsuo R ，Nagai T ，Katai H ，Wakai T ，Akazawa K ... -  《-》

A novel nomogram individually predicting disease-specific survival after D2 gastrectomy for advanced gastric cancer.

Wang W ，Sun Z ，Deng JY ，Qi XL ，Feng XY ，Fang C ，Ma XH ，Wang ZN ，Liang H ，Xu HM ，Zhou ZW ... -  《Cancer Communications》

Nomogram for 5-year relapse-free survival of a patient with advanced gastric cancer after surgery.

Prognoses vary substantially among patients with advanced gastric cancer following curative surgery. The aim of the current study was to develop and verify the validity of a novel nomogram that predicts the probability of 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) in patients who underwent curative resection for stage II/III gastric cancer. A nomogram to predict 5-year RFS following surgical resection of gastric cancer was constructed based on the data of patients who underwent surgery for primary gastric carcinoma at three institutions in Japan in January 2001-December 2006. Multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed, and the nomogram's predictive accuracy (discrimination) and the agreement between observed outcomes and predictions (calibration) were evaluated by internal validation. Multivariate analyses revealed that age at operation, depth of tumor, tumor location, lymph node classification, and presence of combined resection were significant prognostic factors for RFS. In the internal validation, discrimination of the developed nomogram for 5-year RFS was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM classification (concordance indices of 0.80 versus 0.67; P < 0.001). Moreover, calibration appeared to be accurate. Based on these results, we have created free software to more easily predict 5-year RFS. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict 5-year RFS after curative surgery for stage II/III gastric cancer. This tool will be useful for the assessing a patient's individual recurrence risk when considering additional therapy in clinical practice.

Muneoka Y ，Akazawa K ，Ishikawa T ，Ichikawa H ，Nashimoto A ，Yabusaki H ，Tanaka N ，Kosugi SI ，Wakai T ... -  《-》

Nomograms for predicting survival in patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma who undergo palliative gastrectomy.

Ma T ，Wu ZJ ，Xu H ，Wu CH ，Xu J ，Peng WR ，Fan LL ，Sun GP ... -  《-》

Nomogram predicting long-term survival after d2 gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

Han DS ，Suh YS ，Kong SH ，Lee HJ ，Choi Y ，Aikou S ，Sano T ，Park BJ ，Kim WH ，Yang HK ... -  《-》