Timing of arteriovenous fistula creation in patients With CKD: a decision analysis.

The optimal time for arteriovenous fistula (AVF) referral is uncertain. Improving the timeliness of referral may reduce central venous catheter (CVC) use. Monte Carlo simulation model. Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) followed up in a multidisciplinary clinic, overall and stratified by age. Decision analysis, patient, patient's lifetime. AVF referral, using 1 of 2 strategies: refer when hemodialysis is anticipated to begin within a certain time frame or refer when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) drops below a certain threshold. A range of values for each strategy are compared to each other with respect to incident vascular access type (AVF or CVC), percentage of patients with an unnecessary AVF creation, and life expectancy after dialysis therapy initiation. A 15-month referral time frame gave 34% with incident CVCs, 14% with unnecessary AVFs, and a life expectancy of 1,751 days. Time frames of 12-18 months performed similarly. Referral at eGFR of 20 mL/min/1.73 m(2) gave 38% with incident CVCs, 20% with unnecessary AVFs, and life expectancy of 1,742 days. Using an eGFR threshold of 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 10% had an unnecessary AVF. Policy performance was affected by CKD progression rate and age. For fast progressors (ΔeGFR = -7mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year), referral at eGFR of 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) achieved a similar incident CVC percentage (~40%) as referral at 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in slower progressors (ΔeGFR = -2.78 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year). For patients aged 70-80 and 80-90 years, time frames of 15-18 months yielded 16%-22% with unnecessary AVFs (vs 9%-11% in 50- to 60-year-olds); an eGFR threshold strategy of 20 mL/min/1.73 m(2) yielded 24% unnecessary AVFs in 80- to 90-year-olds versus 16% in 50- to 60-year-olds. Our model does not consider patients with nonlinear CKD progression or acute kidney injury. We did not include arteriovenous grafts or consider cost or quality of life. In general, AVF referral within about 12 months of the estimated time to dialysis performed best among time frame strategies, and referral at eGFR < 15-20 mL/min/1.73 m(2) performed best among threshold strategies. The timing of referral should also be guided by the individual rate of CKD progression. Elderly patients with CKD could be referred later to reduce the risk of creating an AVF that is never used.

Shechter SM ，Skandari MR ，Zalunardo N 《-》

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Vascular Access Referral Policies in CKD.

The optimal timing of vascular access referral for patients with chronic kidney disease who may need hemodialysis (HD) is a pressing question in nephrology. Current referral policies have not been rigorously compared with respect to costs and benefits and do not consider patient-specific factors such as age. Monte Carlo simulation model. Patients with chronic kidney disease, referred to a multidisciplinary kidney clinic in a universal health care system. Cost-effectiveness analysis, payer perspective, lifetime horizon. The following vascular access referral policies are considered: central venous catheter (CVC) only, arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or graft (AVG) referral upon HD initiation, AVF (or AVG) referral when HD is forecast to begin within 12 (or 3 for AVG) months, AVF (or AVG) referral when estimated glomerular filtration rate is <15 (or <10 for AVG) mL/min/1.73m2. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, in 2014 US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained). The ICER of AVF (AVG) referral within 12 (3) months of forecasted HD initiation, compared to using only a CVC, is ∼$105k/QALY ($101k/QALY) at a population level (HD costs included). Pre-HD AVF or AVG referral dominates delaying referral until HD initiation. The ICER of pre-HD referral increases with patient age. Results are most sensitive to erythropoietin costs, ongoing HD costs, and patients' utilities for HD. When ongoing HD costs are excluded from the analysis, pre-HD AVF dominates both pre-HD AVG and CVC-only policies. Literature-based estimates for HD, AVF, and AVG utilities are limited. The cost-effectiveness of vascular access referral is largely driven by the annual costs of HD, erythropoietin costs, and access-specific utilities. Further research is needed in the field of dialysis-related quality of life to inform decision making regarding vascular access referral.

Shechter SM ，Chandler T ，Skandari MR ，Zalunardo N ... -  《-》

Overutilization of central venous catheters in incident hemodialysis patients: reasons and potential resolution strategies.

Lenz O ，Sadhu S ，Fornoni A ，Asif A ... -  《SEMINARS IN DIALYSIS》

Efficiency of the kidney disease outcomes quality initiative guidelines for preemptive vascular access in an academic setting.

The National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Diseases Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) for vascular access guidelines state that patients with late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) should undergo native arteriovenous fistula (AVF) creation at least 6 months before anticipated start of hemodialysis (HD) treatments to obviate the need for other vascular access types, such as grafts or central catheters. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence of HD, the functional patency, and associated morbidity of AVFs in patients with late-stage CKD placed according to KDOQI. Consecutive patients with late-stage CKD who underwent AVF creation using KDOQI guidelines for anatomy between January 2003 and December 2007 at two tertiary academic centers were retrospectively evaluated. Baseline demographics, AVF type, and clinical comorbidities were recorded. Patients were stratified into one of four groups (groups A-D) over the follow-up course based on two end points: patency of their AVF and whether or not they began HD. The ideal primary outcome was AVF maturation and use for HD (group A; cumulative functional patency). Other outcomes included AVF patency but no HD (group B), HD with AVF failure (group C), or no HD and AVF abandonment (ie, death, refused hemodialysis, kidney transplant, or fistula failure; group D). Secondary outcomes were time to first cannulation, complications, and secondary interventions. AVFs were created (46% forearm and 54% upper arm) in 150 patients with CKD (85% men, median age 63 years old). At a median follow-up of 10 months, 74 patients (49%) were receiving HD and of these, 48 patients (65%) were using their AVF (group A), whereas 26 patients (35%) were not due to fistula failure (group C). Thirty-four patients (23%) never initiated HD treatments, but had a viable AVF (group B), and 42 patients (28%) never initiated HD and abandoned their AVF (group D). Overall, AVF abandonment was 51%. Mean maturation time of all AVFs successfully cannulated was 285 days (range, 30-1265 days). Complications encountered were maturation failure for cannulation (15%), focal stenosis requiring intervention (13%), inadequate flows on HD (9%), steal syndrome (9%), and thrombosis (8%). Cumulative functional patency for all AVFs was 19% and 27% at 6 and 12 months, respectively, with a mean number of two interventions per AVF (range, 1-10). Mortality during the study was 23%. Despite successful creation and maturation of a preemptive AVF in nearly two-thirds of patients who started HD during the follow-up and given the following observations: the high overall mortality of the population, the morbidity and costs in secondary procedures of AVF creation, and the high incidence of abandonment, it is unclear if this strategy would demonstrate a benefit in a randomized trial when compared to other access strategies.

Kimball TA ，Barz K ，Dimond KR ，Edwards JM ，Nehler MR ... -  《-》

Factors associated with functional arteriovenous fistula at hemodialysis start and arteriovenous fistula non-use in a single-center cohort.

Chung EY ，Knagge D ，Cheung S ，Sun J ，Heath L ，McColl H ，Guo H ，Gray L ，Srivastava T ，Sandy J ，McGinn S ，Fisher C ... -  《-》