Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in Chinese patients: comparison of prediction models.
To assess the performance of risk scores in predicting symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT).
A multicenter prospective study was performed in 811 patients who underwent IVT with standard-dose recombinant tissue plasminogen activator within 4.5 hours of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) onset in 67 stroke centers involved in the Thrombolysis Implementation and Monitor of acute ischemic Stroke in China program from May 2007 to April 2012. SEDAN (blood sugar, early infarct signs, [hyper]dense cerebral artery sign, age) score, Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke (SITS)-SICH score, Glucose Race Age Sex Pressure Stroke Severity (GRASPS) score, Multicenter Stroke Survey (MSS) score, and Stroke Prognostication using Age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (SPAN)-100 index were calculated in selected patients, and their predictive performance for SICH was compared according to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS), Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST), and European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS)-II criteria.
For predicting the risk of SICH (NINDS definition) after IVT, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of MSS score was the highest (.71, P < .0001). For predicting the risk of SICH (SITS-MOST definition) after IVT, the area under the ROC curve of GRASPS score was the highest (.73, P = .005). For predicting SICH (ECASS-II definition) after IVT, the area under the ROC curve of MSS score was the highest (.73, P < .0001).
SITS-SICH, GRASPS, and MSS scores predicted the risk of SICH after IVT in patients with AIS, but only the latter 2 were better in the Chinese population. MSS score had the best predictive performance for SICH using NINDS and ECASS-II definitions, whereas GRASPS score was the best for SICH using the SITS-MOST definition.
Li M
,Wang-Qin RQ
,Wang YL
,Liu LB
,Pan YS
,Liao XL
,Wang YJ
,Xu AD
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Symptomatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage after Intravenous Thrombolysis: Predictive Factors and Validation of Prediction Models.
Thrombolytic therapy with intravenous alteplase (IV-rtPA) has a known risk of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). We aim to identify factors with a significant association with the development of sICH post-IV-rtPA. We also aim to perform an external validation of sICH predicting scores in our patient population.
We performed a retrospective chart review of patients who received IV-rtPA at our tertiary care hospital. We excluded patients who underwent mechanical thrombectomy. We analyzed various factors recorded at presentation such as presenting mean arterial pressure (MAP), blood glucose, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, verify Aspirin, verify Plavix, age, sex, platelet count, international normalized ratio, prothrombin time, partial thromboplastin time, hemoglobin A1c, low-density lipoprotein, onset to treatment time, weight, sex, and early infarct signs on computed tomography (CT) head and compared them between sICH and non-sICH groups. For validation of sICH scores, we used documented variables to calculate the following scores for each patient: stroke prognostication using age and NIH stroke scale-100 (SPAN-100), DRAGON, CUCCHIARA, hemorrhage after thrombolysis (HAT), SEDAN, totaled health risks in vascular events, and safe implementation of thrombolysis in stroke-symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage.
sICH rate in our cohort of 89 patients was 5.62% according to the European-Australasian Cooperative Acute Stroke Study-II (ECASS-II) criteria and 7.86% according to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) criteria. In the multivariate regression analysis, MAP (95% CI, .001-.01; P .002), blood glucose greater than or equal to 185 mg/dL (95% CI, .12-.45; P .001) and presence of early infarct signs (95% CI, .06-.25; P .002) had a significant association with the development of sICH with the ECASS-II definition of sICH post-IV-rtPA, whereas, only MAP (95% CI, 1.01-1.18; P .025) and verify Aspirin less than 500 (95% CI, .01-.80; P .032) had a significant association with the development of sICH with the NINDS definition of sICH post-IV-rtPA. Our study found that HAT (95% CI, .58-.96; P .044) and DRAGON (95% CI, .61-.96; P .012) scores had the highest area under the curve (AUC) with respect to ECASS-II and NINDS criteria of sICH, respectively.
We found that presenting MAP, presence of early infarct signs on CT Head and blood glucose greater than or equal to 185 mg/dL upon a patient's presentation have a significant association with sICH post-IV-rtPA when the ECASS-II definition was used, while presenting MAP and verify Aspirin less than 500 upon a patient's presentation have a significant association with sICH post-IV-rtPA when the NINDS definition was used. Our study found that HAT and DRAGON scores had the highest AUC, and they were the most valid in predicting the development of sICH in our independent cohort. Patients with these risk factors should receive more intensive neurological monitoring.
Nisar T
,Hanumanthu R
,Khandelwal P
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