The prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with primary pontine hemorrhage: a scoring system comparison.

Owing to its low morbidity but high mortality, no accurate scoring system focuses on primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH) has been established. We aim to compare the performances of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II with the ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality in patients with PPH. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients admitted with a diagnosis of PPH to a university-affiliated hospital in southern China from May 2000 to June 2011. Data related to patient demographics and that necessary to calculate APACHE II, SAPS II, and ICH score were recorded. Performances of these scoring systems were presented as calibration and discrimination, which were measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, respectively. Among 75 patients with PPH finally included, 31 (41.3%) died within 30 days. SAPS II (χ(2) = 6.57, P = 0.682) had the best calibration, followed by APACHE II (χ(2) = 8.06, P = 0.428) and ICH score (χ(2) = 4.94, P = 0.176). Furthermore, in terms of area under the ROC curve, APACHE II (0.919) was more discriminative than SAPS II (0.890) and ICH score (0.844). In predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PPH, SAPS II has the best calibration, while APACHE II has the highest discrimination. The ICH score, which is easier and simpler to calculate, should be modified for PPH.

Huang KB ，Ji Z ，Wu YM ，Wang SN ，Lin ZZ ，Pan SY ... -  《-》

Primary pontine hemorrhage in the acute stage: clinical features and a proposed new simple scoring system.

It is important to evaluate the likelihood of fatality in patients with acute primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH) in emergency departments. We aimed to evaluate the clinical symptoms and computed tomography findings of PPH to develop a simple grading scale for predicting the mortality of PPH. Records of 101 consecutive patients admitted to our hospital with acute PPH between June 1, 2006, and January 31, 2014, were retrospectively reviewed. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A simple and easy clinical score (PPH score) was developed from independent factors to predict mortality in acute PPH. The PPH score was compared with the established intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score, which served as the reference scoring system. Overall mortality rate 30 days after onset was 58.4% (59 of 101). Factors independently associated with 30-day mortality were Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 6 or less (P = .0051), absence of pupillary light reflex (P = .0003), and blood glucose of 180 mg/dL or greater (P = .0312). The PPH score was the sum of independent factors, which were assigned 1 point each. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting 30-day mortality was .90 (95% confidence interval [CI], .84-.95) for PPH score and .86 (95% CI, .78-.93) for ICH score. GCS score of 6 or less, absence of pupillary light reflex, and plasma glucose of 10 mmol/L or greater are independent mortality predictors of PPH. The PPH score is a simple and reliable clinical grading scale for predicting 30-day mortality.

Meguro T ，Kuwahara K ，Tomita Y ，Okuma Y ，Tanabe T ，Muraoka K ，Terada K ，Hirotsune N ，Nishino S ... -  《-》

A Comparison of the Intracerebral Hemorrhage Score and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score for 30-Day Mortality Prediction in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score is well established as a reliable prognostic score in ICH, whereas recently, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) has been observed to have a better discrimination in predicting mortality in primary pontine hemorrhage. Further, physiological parameters of APACHE II have been associated with outcome in ICH. This study is the first to observe a direct comparison between APACHE II and ICH scores in predicting 30-day mortality in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH). This study was a prospective observational study where we compared the receiver operating characteristic (ROCs) of baseline ICH and APACHE II scores in patients with SICH for predicting 30-day mortality outcome. We observed that both APACHE II and ICH scores were good for predicting 30-day mortality with both having an area under the ROC curve of more than .8 (.831 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .740-.922; P <.001] and .892 [95% CI, .757-.932; P <.001], respectively). However, the ICH score was better discriminative (area under the curve AUC, .892 versus .831; P = .040) and better calibrated (P = .037 versus P = .089, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for logistic regression) for the same. Both APACHE II and ICH scores had a sensitivity of 87% at cutoff values of 19 and 3, respectively; however, the ICH score had a better specificity (90% versus 76.5%). The ICH score was observed to have a better discrimination and calibration for predicting 30-day mortality in SICH.

Pan K ，Panwar A ，Roy U ，Das BK ... -  《-》

Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit.

Ma QB ，Fu YW ，Feng L ，Zhai QR ，Liang Y ，Wu M ，Zheng YA ... -  《-》

Validation of predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction score compared with standard severity scores in predicting hospital outcome in septic shock patients.

Khwannimit B ，Bhurayanontachai R 《-》