Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study.

Excessively high and low temperatures substantially affect human health. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges to public health systems. Since localised assessments of temperature-related mortality risk are essential to formulate effective public health responses and adaptation strategies, we aimed to estimate the current and future temperature-related mortality risk under four climate change scenarios across all European regions. We modelled current and future mortality due to non-optimal temperatures across 1368 European regions, considering age-specific characteristics and local socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Overseas territories were excluded from the analysis. We applied a three-stage method to estimate temperature-related risk continuously across age and spatial dimensions. Age and city-specific exposure-response functions were obtained for a comprehensive list of 854 European cities from the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat. Regional aggregates were calculated using an aggregation and extrapolation method that incorporates the risk incidence in neighbouring cities. Mortality was projected for present conditions observed in 1991-2020 and for four different levels of global warming (1·5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C increase) by regions, and subregions using an ensemble of 11 climate models produced by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-CMIP5 over Europe, and population projection data from EUROPOP2019. Our results highlight regional disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe. Between 1991 and 2020, the number of cold-related deaths was 2·5 times higher in eastern Europe than western Europe, and heat-related deaths were 6 times higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe. During the same time period, there were a median of 363 809 cold-related deaths (empirical 95% CI 362 493-365 310) and 43 729 heat-related deaths (39 880-45 921), with a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 8·3:1. Under current climate policies, aligned with 3°C increase in global warming, it is estimated that temperature-related deaths could increase by 54 974 additional deaths (24 112-80 676) by 2100, driven by rising heat-related deaths and an ageing population, resulting in a cold-to-heat-related death ratio of 2·6:1. Climate change is also expected to widen disparities in regional mortality, particularly impacting southern regions of Europe as a result of a marked increase in heat-related deaths. This study shows that regional disparities in temperature-related mortality risk in Europe are substantial and will continue to increase due to the effects of climate change and an ageing population. The data presented can assist policy makers and health authorities in mitigating increasing health inequalities by prioritising the protection of more susceptible areas and older population groups. We identify the projected areas of heightened risk (southern Europe), where policy intervention aimed at building adaptation and enhancing resilience should be prioritised. European Commission.

被引量：- 发表：1970

The future of the temperature-mortality relationship.

被引量：- 发表：1970

Changing patterns of health risk in adolescence: implications for health policy.

Adolescence is a time of physical, cognitive, social, and emotional development. This period is a very sensitive developmental window; environmental exposures, the development of health behaviours (eg, smoking and physical activity), and illness during adolescence can have implications for lifelong health. In the UK and other high-income countries, the experience of adolescence has changed profoundly over the past 20 years. Smoking, drug use, and alcohol consumption have all been in long-term decline. At the same time, obesity and mental ill health have increased and are now common among adolescents, with new risks (ie, vaping, psychoactive substances, and online harms) emerging. In this Viewpoint, we describe these and related trends in England and the UK. Although previous work has explored these changes in isolation, in this Viewpoint we consider them collectively. We explore what might be driving the changes and consider the implications for practice, policy, and research.

被引量：- 发表：1970

New insights on risks associated with early adulthood BMI call for more evidence and earlier action.

被引量：- 发表：1970

Early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study from the China Kadoorie Biobank.

The associations of early adulthood BMI with cardiovascular diseases have yet to be completely delineated. There is little reliable evidence about these associations among east Asian populations, that differ in fat distribution, disease patterns, and lifestyle factors from other populations. We aimed to study the associations between early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular diseases in a Chinese population, and the effect of midlife lifestyle factors on outcomes. In this prospective analysis, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large and long-term cohort from five urban areas and five rural areas, using participants aged 35-70 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of cardiovascular diseases as a group, ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke, which were obtained mainly through linkage to disease registries and the national database for health insurance claims. Early adulthood BMI was assessed through self-report at baseline survey. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the prospective associations. We also undertook multiplicative and additive interaction analyses to investigate the potential modification effect of midlife healthy lifestyle factors (a combined score covering smoking, drinking, physical activity, and diet). Participants were recruited for baseline survey between June, 2004, and July, 2008. During a median follow-up of 12·0 years (IQR 11·3-13·1), we documented 57 203 (15·9%) of incident cardiovascular diseases in 360 855 participants. After adjustment for potential confounders, monotonic dose-response associations were observed between higher early adulthood BMI and increased risks of incident cardiovascular diseases. Compared with an early adulthood BMI of 20·5-22·4 kg/m2 (the reference group), the hazard ratios for a BMI of less than 18·5 kg/m2 was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00), 18·5-20·4 kg/m2 was 0·97 (0·95-0·99), 22·5-23·9 kg/m2 was 1·04 (1·02-1·07), 24·0-25·9 kg/m2 was 1·12 (1·09-1·15), 26·0-27·9 kg/m2 was 1·19 (1·14-1·24), 28·0-29·9 kg/m2 was 1·34 (1·25-1·44), and ≥30·0 kg/m2 was 1·58 (1·42-1·75). Except for haemorrhagic stroke, lower early adulthood BMI (<20·5 kg/m2) was associated with decreased incident cardiovascular disease risks. No significant interaction was found between midlife healthy lifestyle factors and early adulthood BMI on cardiovascular disease risks. Increased risks of cardiovascular disease incidence were found among participants with high early adulthood adiposity, including ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke. Our findings suggest early adulthood as an important time to focus on weight management and obesity prevention for cardiovascular health later in life. National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust.

被引量：1 发表：1970