摘要：

Previous studies have shown that the ratio of triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (TG/HDL-C) is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of this study was to investigate the nonlinear relationship between TG/HDL-C and the incidence of T2DM in a Chinese population. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the incidence of T2DM among 7,791 participants from the Risk Evaluation of cAncers in Chinese diabeTic Individuals: a lONgitudinal (REACTION) cohort study at baseline. After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, strenuous activity, education level, family histories of T2DM and tumors, and the presence of hypertension, tumor, stroke, and coronary heart disease, we showed that TG/HDL-C was positively associated with the incidence of T2DM at the 4-year follow-up (OR = 1.49, 95%CI = 1.26-1.78). TG/HDL-C and incidence of T2DM showed a nonlinear relationship; the inflection point of TG/HDL-C was 1.50. The ORs (95% CI) on the left and right sides of the inflection point were 2.50 (1.70-3.67) and 0.96 (0.67-1.37), respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) in the linear relationship, the OR of the incidence of T2DM was 1.60 (95%CI = 1.37-1.87). When the TG/HDL-C was less than 1.50 or greater than 1.76, the ORs (95% CI) were 2.41 (1.82-3.18) or 0.81 (0.53-1.25), respectively. Subgroup analysis showed no relationships of T2DM incidence with sex, BMI, family history of T2DM, or TG/HDL-C. TG/HDL-C is positively associated with diabetes risk. In our study, with each increasing quintile, the risk of T2DM after 4 years was 1.60 or 1.49 depending on the variables adjusted. In addition, our cohort study showed a nonlinear relationship between TG/HDL-C and T2DM incidence, with an inflection point of 1.76 or 1.50, depending on the variables adjusted. When the TG/HDL was less than 1.50, the ORs (95% CI) were 2.41 (1.82-3.18) and 2.50 (1.70-3.67). When the TG/HDL-C was greater than 1.76 or 1.50, there was no significant difference in the change in OR.

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